The Great Crop Migration

We may be living in the middle of the next great American migration – but this time, it’s not families migrating from cities to suburbs, it’s the nation’s fruits and vegetables gradually leaving lower latitudes for cooler climates further north. For the last 10 years in the Midwest, that has looked like corn farmers moving out of the Corn Belt states into Michigan and Minnesota. In the West, it may look like tomatoes, grapes, and strawberries leaving California for cooler climates in Oregon and Washington.

While some plants thrive in lots of heat (think citrus, melons, etc.) most require more moderate temperatures, or a significant shift between daytime high and overnight low temperatures. Each plant has its own “sweet spot,” where the average high and low temperatures are just right. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) uses a metric called Plant Hardiness Zones (see map below), which is the standard by which growers and gardeners can determine which perennial plants are most likely to thrive at a location. Those Plant Hardiness Zones are slowly shifting north, meaning that crops that previously thrived in northern California may now feel more at home in Oregon or Washington.

All this is noteworthy because California is the nation’s largest producer of agriculture, producing a huge share of U.S. fruits, nuts, and vegetables. In fairness, California produces a lot of everything – if it were a separate country, California would have the fourth-largest economy of any country in the world.

There’s no doubt that the land and climate in California's Central Valley have historically been ideal for crop production. For the last 100-plus years, the region’s warm temperatures, adequate rain and irrigation, and plentiful acreage of fertile soils have meant that growers can grow essentially whatever they want: a huge variety including fruits, vegetables, and specialty crops like citrus fruits, almonds, artichokes, garlic, figs, pistachios, and walnuts. The Central Valley alone is responsible for producing 40% of the fruits, vegetables, and nuts consumed in the United States, along with 80% of American wine. In 2023, California’s total agricultural production was valued at $59.4 billion – more than four times more than Washington’s annual production of $14 billion.

But in recent years, California has been hit with a triple whammy of factors that have made growing more difficult. In response, many large–scale farm operations have begun investigating the possibility of moving some of their operations northward, toward Oregon and Washington.

First, rising temperatures in the region have meant that some crops struggle. Since 1895, average annual mean temperatures have risen by around 2.5 degrees, and warming has accelerated in recent decades. Although heatwaves are usually considered a summer problem, warm winter and spring temperatures can also be a problem for fruit and nut trees. For example, many of California's perennials require exposure to cool temperatures during the winter in order to bloom and develop correctly in the spring. In 2015, a warm winter and a lack of chill devastated California's pistachio crop and caused more than $180 million in crop damage.

Second, one effect of those warming temperatures is a reduced amount of snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, which means less snowmelt swelling the region’s rivers throughout the year and replenishing its aquifers. When you combine that reduced snowpack with the lack of rainfall due to the ongoing ​​southwest North American megadrought, water scarcity has become one of the most significant challenges facing California. Despite moderate precipitation in the last two winters, “The American West’s last quarter–century ranks as the driest in 1,200 years” read one recent LA Times headline.

That lack of water means that state legislators have tightened water restrictions on all Californians, including the state’s hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland. For 100 years in California, anyone could dig a well on their land and pump as much as they wanted, but all that is about to end. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, which went into effect in 2021, treats the state's underground aquifers like a bank account that has to stay in balance. There can be withdrawals of water, but they cannot exceed the rate at which the aquifer is replenished. Farmers have to measure and report their groundwater extractions and are charged a fee.

“Right now, for growers that are struggling to get adequate water in California, Washington is a very good alternative,” says Travis Meacham, production manager at Friehe Farms in Moses Lake. “Our infrastructure can handle growth, and we have a bit more freedom in agriculture. We have lots of irrigation from the Columbia River and Yakima River. Some of those restrictions may be coming in the future, but we’re way ahead.”

The third factor, which affects all Americans but especially those in California, is the rising financial cost of doing business. While the state is famously expensive to live in, farmers and processors are constantly facing high costs. Land in California is expensive. Labor in California is expensive. Compliance with California’s EPA regulations is expensive.

“In California, we’re losing farms and ranches at an alarming rate in the face of challenging business viability and climate effects with development and water scarcity, on track to consume more,” said Tom Stein, American Farmland Trust’s California regional director, in a recent article from farmland.org.

Some of the most forward–thinking farmers in California began recognizing those factors more than a decade ago and began planning accordingly. Many have leased plots of land in Washington to test out the viability of crops like tomatoes, carrots, strawberries, and others. Washington is an appealing landing place for many because the state has many of the same factors that caused California to grow into such an agricultural powerhouse: a climate that’s ideal for many specialty crops, adequate rain and irrigation, and fertile soils.

“The big picture is that farmers all over are going to be experiencing novel weather and climate conditions, which will be a challenge for an industry where slight shifts can lead to big impacts economically,” says Ailene Ettinger, quantitative ecologist with The Nature Conservancy. “Climate change is leading to extreme conditions – extreme heat, drought, and precipitation events – and all those are challenging for farmers and for crops. But it’s also leading to new opportunities if farmers are willing to try new crops in new places.”

The foremost example of this comes from the wine industry, which has been taking root in Washington for decades. But before the Columbia Valley was recognized as a wine hot spot, many farmers believed that wine grapes could only really thrive in the warmth of the California sun. When growers first planted test vineyards here in 1974, they discovered that the climate was very favorable. In the decades since those first test plots, the wine industry has blossomed in Washington, turning the Columbia Valley into one of the world’s foremost wine regions.

As farmers test out other fruits and vegetables like tomatoes and carrots in Washington’s fertile soils, they're hoping for a similar triumph. The biggest hurdle is convincing processing companies to invest millions of dollars in building facilities in Washington to turn those tomatoes into ketchup or get those carrots washed, bagged, and sent to grocery stores.

“It’s kind of a ‘chicken or the egg’ situation,” says Meacham. “We need both sides: we need the production (farms), and then we also need a place to take them (processing). So traditionally, crops are grown where they have a market. And the processing market hasn’t really been here in Washington. We need to have a processor here who can handle them, before we can really grow them in high volumes.”

Washington has adequate processing options for the crops that have traditionally been grown here like apples and pears, potatoes, wheat, berries, and stonefruits. But different crops require different processing options, and those facilities can run into the tens of millions of dollars. In the time until those facilities are in place, Meacham says, farmers will continue to experiment in order to ensure they can grow the crops as efficiently as possible.

“Just speaking for (our farm), we’re actively planning for more crops to come in,” says Meacham. “Five years ago, we grew four crops. Now we’re growing 15 to try to find what is most profitable for us. We’re actively searching for what fits into our rotation, and what does well for us. But there is enough different here from California that we need to take the time to experiment and fine tune the process.”

Meacham pauses a moment, considering the changes that are coming to Washington.

“It’s not really that big of a change. Everybody in the Northwest is already growing tomatoes in their garden,” he says with a chuckle. “I know because everyone is trying to give me advice on how to grow them.”