Weathering the Change

The Washington State Climate Office has a hefty job. Like all state climatologists, the scientists who work in Washington analyze trends and provide information about the past, present, and future of the state’s climate. But in Washington, each region has such a large variation in weather, temperatures, and rainfall that statewide generalizations are nearly impossible.

“One size does not fit all from a climate perspective,” says Nick Bond, who worked as the Washington state climatologist from 2010 until last year, when Guillaume Mauger moved into the role. “The state has 10 different climate zones, and because of the diversity of the climate in the state, when we talk about what might be going on in the vicinity of the Olympic Mountains, that applies very little to, say, the Tri-Cities area.”

For example, the availability of water varies greatly among the microclimates: areas of the Olympic Mountains can get up to 150 inches of precipitation a year, while parts of Eastern Washington get only 7-9 inches. Climatologists like Bond look at large-scale, widespread data for a region and refine it to a local scale, factoring in each zone’s specific climate. This provides people like farmers or utility workers with specific information about droughts, flooding, and temperature expectations so they can plan ahead.

Bond has always loved the weather. Growing up in the 1970s, he lived through both a major drought and subsequent flooding in California, which piqued his interest in weather and climate systems. After studying physics as an undergrad, he decided to pursue a Ph.D. in his passion from the University of Washington, where he went on to teach in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences before becoming the state climatologist.

In his time at the climate office, Bond says he could see the effects of climate change within the state, especially when it comes to increased temperatures and water availability. For example, in the mountains, there tends to be more precipitation in the form of rain, with less snow. The mountain snow is important because it accumulates in winter and melts in the spring, feeding into rivers and reservoirs in lower elevations and providing water for things like hydropower, irrigation, and drinking. Less snow runoff can be attributed to higher winter temperatures and, in some years, earlier snowmelt in spring, which leaves less water to sustain the region through the dry summer season.

“Certainly in the Yakima Valley — which has very high-value crops, such as vineyards and hops and orchards and so forth — the irrigation districts rely upon the snowpack,” says Bond, adding that the region’s reservoirs were also lower this winter than in the past, in part a “hangover” from last year’s water shortages. Because this water is needed for so many things, groups need to work together to allocate the water supply.

“There are a lot of folks that have overlapping but not identical interests and needs,” says Bond, adding that he’s been encouraged by how those groups that once had a more adversarial relationship have been able to work together in recent years. “This collective working together is going to be necessary to be able to deal best with the issues we face.”

And the climate office’s role in this, Bond says, is to give better information on what’s coming in the next month, the next season, and even further ahead, which will help people make decisions during times when water isn’t as plentiful.

“If irrigation districts know there’s going to be less water, they can inform their agricultural interests, and maybe this is the year they leave some of their land fallow,” he says. “Or if you have water rights, maybe it’s a year in which you can sell some of that water to other users who really need it.”

Bond said rising temperatures will also impact the region, causing some crops to be unable to grow and even allowing new pests or molds to thrive that currently cannot survive the Washington winters. Strangely, however, while there are clear drawbacks to warmer temperatures, he said there could also be some short-term benefits for Washington farmers, including longer growing seasons.

“If you grow alfalfa and you get an extra cutting, what’s not to like about that?” he says. “And for certain other crops, maybe the harvest can be accomplished before early frost in the fall damages the crops.”

In addition, the country might need to rely more on Washington produce as other regions become too warm to grow their current staples. For example, he says wine grapes need cool nighttime temperatures to develop the acids that give them flavor, and if temperatures in California continue to rise, there could be declines in quality, and Washington farmers would need to fill the gap. Peaches are another good example.

“They need a winter dormancy — cold enough temperatures — for the tree to go through its cycle and flower properly and have fruit,” he says. “And as temperatures rise, there is evidence that some growing areas aren’t going to be as suitable anymore, and perhaps Washington state is going to be more valuable and able to pick up the slack.”

In general, Bond says we should recognize that there will be continued shifts as climate change progresses, but it’s also important to remember that people are working to counter this on a global, national, and statewide level.

“The climate is changing and will continue to change, but we’re not sticking our heads in the sand,” he says. “Through being mindful about it and continuing the work that’s in progress right now, we’ll be able to better adapt to those changes that are occurring. We’re not giving up, and we shouldn’t.”

As for Bond, his career might be slowing down, but his love for climate science hasn’t dwindled. While he doesn’t miss the administrative aspects of his job at the climate office, he loves the research and services he provided in the role, and he said he’s still involved with climate research in the state.

“It’s been really rewarding to see the interest in what the state climate office is providing,” he says. “I just feel fortunate that I found a niche for something that obviously has a lot of interest and importance across the spectrum.”